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Wednesday, December 19, 2001


Winzip turns detective

Winzip - a popular piece of shareware software used for compressing and decompressing files, turns out to have an amazing extra ability. It can be used to analyse patterns to determine such things as a document's subject matter, the language it is written in or even its true author.

The technique was devised by Vittorio Loreto and two colleagues at Sapienza University in Italy. New Scientist describes it in its 15 December 2001 issue and Physics Reviews Letters is publishing a more detailed technical description soon.

Unfortunately neither publication makes its full text available online, but versions appear on Vittorio's site - the New Scientist piece 'A gift for language' only as Postscript, while the longer piece 'Language trees and zipping' is best downloaded as an Acrobat pdf file)

Winzip and other compression programs take a sequence of characters and attempt to transform them into the shortest possible file. They typically do this by scanning the text for sequences of characters that repeat, replacing the most common sequences with shorter codes.

The more text Winzip has to work with, the more efficiently it compresses the file, because it is able to allocate the shortest codes to the most frequently occurring sequences more accurately. So Winzip optimises its compression method to the specific language pattern used in the document.

What Vittorio and his colleagues noticed is that this means that Winzip has effectively produced a fingerprint of the language pattern that can then be used to identify other texts.

Consider for example two documents, one written in English, the other in Italian. If the Italian text is appended to the end of the English text and the combined document submitted to Winzip, here is what happens. The zipper starts at the beginning with the English text, and after a while learns its rules and starts encoding it efficiently. When it gets to the Italian text it initially encodes it with the rules it has learned for English - so the Italian text is not compressed very efficiently. But if there's enough Italian text to work with after a while the zip program learns new rules appropriate for Italian, so it starts encoding the Italian efficiently too.

How can this be used to learn something about an unfamiliar text? To understand the principle, let's say you want to know whether something is written in English or Italian.

First take a long document known to be written in English, and encode it with Winzip. Then take a long document written in Italian, and encode that. Now take your mystery text and append it to the end of the original English document, and compress the combined file. And then take the mystery text, add it to the Italian original and compress that combination.

So you end up with four compressed files. The final stage is to compare their lengths.

If the mystery text is written in English then the English-plus-mystery-text file will only be slightly longer than the known English document on its own. On the other hand, if the mystery text is in Italian then the English-plus-mystery-text file will have gone up significantly in length (because Italian won't have been compressed efficiently), while the Italian-plus-mystery-text file will be only slightly longer than the known Italian document on its own.

This may all seem rather laborious, but it does have some potentially useful applications. For a start, it could be used to address those popular academic puzzles about who 'really' wrote Shakespeare's plays or authored the individual Federalist papers.

But Vittorio and his colleagues report that the technique works successfully even with very short mystery language fragments. This makes it a candidate for some practical automated applications - for example, routing incoming email messages to an appropriate language translation module.

Search engines might also use a version of the technique to look for web pages resembling a target fragment.




Are Open Source programmers motivated by altruism - or self-interest?

An interesting alternative explanation of why people are willing to give their time free to Open Source software projects is advanced by David Lancashire on First Monday.

The usual explanations (most famously advanced by Eric Raymond) fall back on altruism or make analogies with the gift-giving behaviour often reported in simpler societies by anthropologists.

But Lancashire, a Ph D student at Berkeley, thinks that more traditional economic concepts may suffice.

He notes that a disproportionate number of Open Source developers are from Europe or Canada, rather than the US. Many of them are young. And a lot of them later migrate to the US to work in paid jobs. So a simpler explanation for all this supposed altruism might be reputation-building for economically-rational careerist reasons.

' We expect individuals to produce free software if doing so can help them shift to a higher wage-level ... Developers may embrace open source work as a way to tap into lucrative corporate networks abroad ... In other words, the appropriate analogy for open source development may not be to cooking-pots and cauldrons so much as to the Mayflower.'



Friday, December 14, 2001


Religious-hatred law dropped to allow other anti-terror laws to go through

The struggle over the proposal to make 'incitement to religious hatred' a criminal offense in the UK has ended with the government giving way to its critics. Yesterday (Thursday) the House of Lords yet again rejected the religious clauses by a large majority. Rather than risk holding up the whole Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security bill, the Home Secretary David Blunkett agreed to drop the whole 'incitement to religious hatred' idea.

The Commons then sent the bill, minus the offending clauses, back to the Lords, which passed them early Friday morning. Some time today the bill is likely to receive royal assent, the final stage in getting it onto the statute book. The police will then be able to use their new legal powers this weekend.

The Lords also won one other important concession in the prolonged struggle over the bill - this time on police access to emails and telephone logs. The original proposal gave the police broad powers to seize email and telephone logs. In the amended law police seizure powers only apply when investigating terrorist offenses, not ordinary criminal ones.
BBC: new anti-terror laws at a glance



Thursday, December 13, 2001


Struggle continues on UK religious hatred law

Late yesterday (Wednesday) the Commons reversed the Lords amendments to the government-sponsored Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Bill. This sends the controversial package of new laws back to the Lords, the UK's upper chamber, where opposition is strong to those parts of the bill that touch on religion.
(see below under Monday December 10th).

The key area of difficulty concerns clauses that create a new offense of inciting religious hatred, modeled on existing laws against inciting racial hatred, and punishable by up to seven years in jail.

But many people, Lords and an increasing number of Muslims included, think the Labour government, made up largely of atheists and agnostics, is blundering into territory it does not understand.

Its law may well have the unintended effect of outlawing freedom of expression on issues of fundamental importance to many religious people - people who can't be counted on to shut up just because some man-made law tells them to do so.

The end result may well be the opposite of what the government intends, with religious tensions inflamed rather than calmed.

But the government appears deeply attached to its idea of using the law to 'outlaw religious hatred'. It thinks it will work and is determined to keep the relevant clauses in - despite a revolt last night by 27 of its MPs in the Commons.

The Lords is unlikely to be convinced. A deal is not yet in sight, so all the government's new anti-terrorism measures may be blocked if it insists on keeping the religious stuff in.

The full text of the debate on Monday which led to the Lords to reject the goverment's position (by a large 240 to 141 majority) is now online. (I link to a point about three-quarters of the way through)

House of Lords debates have a curious genteel texture, an impression enhanced by the fanciful names of some of the Lords. But on this occasion they are dealing with issues of real principle, and making a fairly good job of it.

One Lord pointed out that since Osama Bin Laden is clearly acting from religious motives several government ministers have already broken the terms their own proposed law by urging (indeed ordering) people to destroy him - a clear-cut 'incitement to hatred' if ever there was one.



Wednesday, December 12, 2001


Calls for UK to copy US Megan's Law following child murder case

The conviction of a known sex offender for the kidnap and murder of eight-year-old Sarah Payne is sure to revive calls for the wider publication of details of child sex offenders in the UK.

Roy Whiting had previously been convicted of the kidnap and indecent assault of a nine-year-old girl in 1995, but was released from prison after only two years of a four-year sentence.

His record was known to the police and probation (prison aftercare) service where Sarah lived, but not to local parents or the general public. Indeed, in the UK there are few legal ways for even schools and childcare groups to find out if they are dealing with someone of known danger to children.

The situation in the US is radically different. Following a similar child murder, of seven-year-old Megan Kanka in 1994, new so-called Megan's Laws have been introduced in all 50 states. They make it the duty of the authorities to inform the local community of any sex offender living nearby.

Each state has enacted the law slightly differently. The most suitable model for the UK is probably California. It has a similar number of convicted child sex offenders as the UK - roughly 100,000, and its public access arrangements incorporate numerous safeguards to prevent vigilante action and keep the police firmly in control.

The California Attorney General's site explains the policy. In California offenders' details are NOT put up on the Internet. Instead the authorities encourage anyone wanting such information to go to a police station in person, where the data is held on CD-ROM.

You have to prove that you live locally and that you are not yourself a sex offender - to prevent paedophiles using the information to contact each other.

Some California districts such as the city of Fresno publish generalised maps online of where sex offenders live. But to get detailed information you still have to talk to a police officer.

This means that in California the police have a record of everyone to whom they've given offender details. It also means the police have an opportunity to counsel enquirers on what they can and can't do with the information.

The whole procedure is designed to discourage vigilante attacks whilst getting essential information into the hands of those who need it most to protect children - in particular school and community leaders and local parents.

In the UK the big fear of the police is that any kind of open offender register will lead to mob violence. Indeed, there was some rioting in the summer of 2000, at the height of a campaign to change the law, in the south coast city of Portsmouth, not far from where Sarah Payne was murdered.

But the US experience has been very different - even in states with full publication of offenders details on the Internet such as Texas, Florida and Ohio, attacks on sex offenders are rare.

For example, most Ohio counties put the addresses and photographs of offenders online. The police in Dayton don't seem to be overly concerned about the mob attacks the UK authorities so fear.

In the seven years since President Clinton signed the federal act requiring all states to pass Megan's Laws, the US experience has been broadly positive. Most police and state attorney's departments are now in favour of the law and don't seem to find it causes them difficulty finding and prosecuting sex offenders. Nor do they find themselves having to deal with a rash of vigilante attacks.

Since these are all fears that have been raised here repeatedly as reasons to NOT implement a UK equivalent of Megan's Law, it is clearly the duty of the government to investigate the US experience much more seriously.

In the UK the tradition of state secrecy is very strong. It is all too easy for the police and government ministers to dismiss the idea of an equivalent UK Sarah's Law as unworkable and carry on in their habitual guarded way.

But this would be a tragic mistake if - as the US experience of Megan's Law suggests, releasing sex offender information more widely really could help save children's lives.

Sarah Paynes mother is on record as saying: "More than 80 per cent of the population support Sarah's Law. Please don't let her death be in vain."

News of the World campaign to change UK law
Summary of US Megan's Laws in all 50 states



Monday, December 10, 2001


Religious hatred law rejected again

The UK government's attempts to pass a new law that seeks to 'outlaw' religious hatred is running into heavy opposition in parliament. Earlier today the house of Lords, the UK's upper chamber, rejected the proposal by an unexpectedly wide margin. This doesn't kill the measure stone dead, but makes some kind of deal more likely.

See below under Monday, November 26, 2001 for why I think this law, although well-intentioned, is a really bad idea and likely to prove counterproductive. What happens now is that the bill goes back to the Commons, where the government will win, but this will just bring it back to the Lords again later this week - and the Lords can throw it out again. Theoretically this stalemate can go on for some time.

In the UK's parliamentary system the Lords has the role of revising new laws - and blocking bad ones until they are improved or withdrawn. The Lords is considerably weaker than the Commons because it is appointed rather than elected. Ultimately in any struggle between Lords and Commons, the elected Commons always wins.

However, by repeatedly throwing out a measure the Lords flags up the issue to the press and public, and creates a delay in which it can be properly discussed. This is what is happening with the proposed religious hatred law. And the government appears to be getting the worst of the wider argument in the country.

Since the dispute is holding up other less controversial measures needed to beef up security in the wake of September 11th, there is still a chance the government may drop the religious parts of the package to get the rest in place before Christmas.




Friday, December 07, 2001


Amazon launches easy-access version of site

Amazon has launched an easy-access version of its site for partially-sited and blind users.

What's significant is that it hasn't gone down the usual giant-type-in-lurid-colours route - used on, for example, the BBC's new site.

Instead Amazon has radically simplified the navigation structure.

This helps because many blind and partially-sited users use special audio software to read the web pages out to them. Normal graphic-oriented sites - even with the images turned off and fonts displayed at huge size, can still be time-consuming and confusing to surf this way.

Amazon's new site, which can be found at www.amazon.com/access, looks very sparse - even sparser than austere search site Google. The fonts are displayed at normal browser size, albeit with a high-contrast colour scheme of black and blue against a plain white background.

This also makes sense, because most partially-sited users will have already set their browser preferences to over-ride the defaults with a font size of their choice.

Amazon has based Amazon Access on the versions it already deploys for mobile users with WAP and i-Mode phones or other simple hand-held devices. Because these devices only have limited displays, Amazon had to rethink and simplify navigation. This work has stood it in good stead when making a version for blind-and-partially-sited users.

Amazon's approach differs from the traditional notions of acccessibility propounded by the W3C, but isn't fundamentally incompatible with them. The W3C recommendations are largely concerned with getting ordinary web authors to make their sites a bit more accessible by following some simple design principles, rather than redesigning their web sites from scratch.

W3C accessibility guidelines
BBC big-font approach
Amazon press release





UK web revenues will soar - thanks to gambling

The UK could take more than a third of all European online consumer entertainment revenue by 2005 - but mainly because of its lax laws on Internet gambling.

According to Schema Consulting, 10 percent of gambling will be online by 2005, compared to just one per cent now. One reason for the very rapid growth is that women are more likly to gamble online than visit a High Street betting shop. Schema talked to over 6,000 consumers in six European countries to compile its report.

Schema brochure
CNET story


Monday, November 26, 2001


New UK law 'outlawing religious hatred' may backfire

The BBC and Telegraph report that the government has overcome Conservative and Liberal Democrat opposition to pass the anti-incitement measures by 328 votes to 209. But further opposition is likely in the Lords, the UK's upper chamber. The real test though will come later in the courts, if government get this measure through.

The government's intentions here are honourable - to prevent relations between the UK's different ethnic and religious groups deteriorating further following the stress caused by attacks of 11th of September and the subsequent Afghan war. It has decided to do this by making it an offense to say bad things about (or even mock) people's religion.

The real issue here isn't whether this is an attack on free speech (it obviously is), but whether it will work as intended. What amazes me is that the proponents of this bill haven't learnt anything from what has happened elsewhere - and in particular in India, where a very similar law was introduced.

Far from promoting peace and harmony, it produced much rancour and ill-feeling.

For example, in 1985 one Chandmal Chopra asked a court in Calcutta to prohibit publication of the Koran on the grounds that it urged readers to fight against followers of other faiths. He didn't succeed, but much poisonous propaganda was produced on both sides. (the story from a pro-Hindu pro-Chopra perspective)


It's hard not to conclude that the reason why we are getting this ill-thought-out law now in the UK is because Labour politicians on the whole aren't very well informed about religion. Indeed, they are so ignorant on what's contained even in mainstream Christian Jewish and Islamic scripture (plenty more examples of incitement to hatred, ethnic cleansing and even murder) that they are blithely going ahead and outlawing sentiments that many revered religious figures have expressed.

Apart from anything else, if this law is passed we are likely to see an enormous waste of court time, as religious scholars on all sides patiencely seek to demonstrate the wickedness of their rivals. This is unlikely to help harmony and order among her majesty's subjects.




Tuesday, November 13, 2001


Will travel fears drive a boom in web conferencing?
To some extent. But don't expect a monster conferencing boom.

Given recent events, it's not surprising that fear of flying is more intense than ever. While airlines, hotel industry and tour companies suffer, some technology vendors are benefiting.

Frost & Sullivan (http://conferencing.frost.com) has just released a report saying that it expects revenues for videoconferencing equipment and videoconferencing services to rise 25 to 50 percent in the next few months.

In a way it's surprising that the uptake of videoconferencing isn't more dramatic.
But videoconferencing has a chequered history and has seen many false dawns in the past.

Ever since AT&T unveiled a 'Picturephone' at the 1964 World Fair in New York it's been one of those futuristic things that is always about to achieve a massive breakthrough, but somehow never does. However, each wave of effort does push the technology forward and conquers a few more niches.

High-end videoconferencing systems are now well established in large corporations, and the porn industry has been enthusiastically proving that the low-cost stuff works well enough to even build a business around ever since the arrival of CU-SeeMe software for the Internet in 1994.

But the big winner now may not be videoconferencing, but other technologies that help reduce the need for travel less directly. For anyone looking for ways of making fewer physical journeys there is now plenty of software and services that can help. Secure file-sharing software (such as Aimster), quick-and-simple discussion forums (such as Quicktopic) and fully-fledged team collaboration systems (such as Groove) are all now cheap and readily available. And of course, people may simply use email and the phone more.

And though business people may travel less, they will still travel. While consumers can often alter their holiday plans to eliminate scary flights, for many businesses doing without flying is virtually impossible. Face-to-face meetings are hard to replace if you really want to know what's going on at far-flung business units and in the minds of key customers and trading partners.

What's likely to happen is that travel substitutes will come in at the margin, reducing the number and frequency of physical follow up meetings and eliminating unnecessary jaunts. Budget cuts caused by the recession are driving this trend as much as individuals' fear of flying.


Friday, November 02, 2001


UK to relax policing of cannabis

Cannabis is to be reclassified as a softer drug under new British government proposals. The changes, which are almost certain to go through, should lead to far fewer arrests of ordinary users. The main motive - apart from the fact the present policy has done nothing to reduce drug consumption, seems to be to free up police time.

'In 1999, nearly 70 per cent of people arrested for drugs offences in Britain were charged with possession of cannabis', according to the New Scientist. 'Processing each offender can take a police officer up to three hours.'

Though the change is being presented as an opportunity to concentrate more resources against crack and heroin suppliers, it's hard not to see the knock-on effects of the war on terrorism in the timing. In the present climate chasing harmless potheads hardly seems an urgent priority.

An ICM poll carried out for the Guardian newspaper indicated strong public backing for the relaxation proposals, with all but the oldest age group (65 plus) in favour.



Better flight security: leave the luggage off the plane

Forget armoured cockpit doors - what about passengers' luggage?

'Now that suicide is part of the standard terror system', writes noted science fiction author David Brin, 'it is no longer enough to make sure that every passenger who checked luggage gets on the plane. I consider this to be the next big problem. We should be letting people fly... but maybe not their bags.'


Thursday, November 01, 2001


Renting images and button bars for web sites

I've not posted for a few days as I've been spending time on developing my new web site. In the process I've been looking for tools to do the job more effectively.

I'm currently looking at style sheet editors and discussion forum software, and will update you in due course if I come across anything outstanding.

Meanwhile though here's one idea - which though fascinating, I don't think I'm going to take up.

Xara makes graphic software - very good software. I spent many happy hours a couple of years ago playing with Xara 3D, which makes 3D and animated images out of text you just type in. But Xara's latest thing is to offer to rent people use of their software, and host the resulting images on their own servers.

The idea does make some kind of sense. Most people only need to use sophisticated graphics software occasionally to do things like create logos, navigation buttons or unusual images for their web sites. Using modern software that automates the task rather than labouring with an old copy of Paint Shop Pro does seem quite attractive.

Xara's offer to host the resulting images on their own servers in return for a predictable flat monthly fee also makes a kind of sense. It's usually serving up images that bust the bandwidth limits imposed by most ISPs.

But the problem, like with most ASP, web services or outsourcing offers, is whether you are willing to trust other people with your data. For example, Xara's software can produce some great button bars which you could use for navigation on your site. But what happens if Xara's server goes down or the company folds?

At least if you do things the conventional way you can keep backups and, if you are really worried about service continuity, set up a mirror site. So, I don't think I'll be beating a path to Xara's door on this one. Instead I'm playing around with Webstyle, one of their conventional software packages which looks like it can do a mean navigation bar.

But I may well end up deciding the whole thing is graphics overkill, and see what I can do with just CSS style sheets, which a lot of people seem to be using on some nice-looking sites these days.


Free 3D headings maker does just a few styles, but you can right-click on them and save them to your hard disk, then use them on your web site in a conventional way.

The more wacky (and expensive: $5 a month) Xara effects: water droplets and this lens moving over an image. The snow one's good - it follows your mouse.



Friday, October 26, 2001


Terrorism's ultra-zealots

If you think Bin Laden is extreme - some Muslims want to kill him because he's too soft. And they've already had a go, according to this Sunday Times story.


Wednesday, October 24, 2001


Paper junk mail losing out to email spam in the anthrax era

Direct marketers are already moving over from paper to email in the US according to an Associated Press story on Wired News. People are reluctant to open physical mail in the present frightened climate.

This is as you'd expect, but the story suggests the changeover may not be ultra rapid. Paper still has advantages - colour, impact, permanence and broad reach across all age and income groups.

So it's more of a tilting of the balance against paper. Response rates for physical direct mail are already pretty low - one percent says the article, so if any more goes in the bin unopened even the most committed junk mailer is going to have to reconsider tactics.



Tuesday, October 23, 2001


New privacy laws come into effect in UK

The full force of the Data Protection Act, passed three years ago, comes into effect today. This is remarkably bad timing because it's all about enhancing people's privacy - which in the current circumstances could be regarded as 'making the UK a safe haven for terrorists'.

Indeed, the French claim that's already the case).

I dealt with these contradictions further down this page (under Thursday October 11th).

The Register www.theregister.co.uk has some details about what's actually required to comply with the act.

The Register is uncharacteristically forgiving of the bureaucrats in this story. Perhaps it's because they haven't actually visited the link they give at the end - to the badly-organised, unhelpful site of the Information Commissioner's Office.

Just imagine for a moment that you earnestly want to comply with your state's privacy laws. Which would help you more - this up-to-date and clear offering from the US Federal Trade Commission, or this feeble British heap of disorganised documents and threats?

Since navigating through to the relevant material isn't easy, let's hope they don't shuffle through the pile and break these links :
summary of changes to the Act from the 24th of October
The Data Protection Act 1998 - legal guidance (this is a Word document - I hope they've virus-checked it. Right click then save if you trust them).




After the Internet goldrush ...

... another goldrush!

More than half a million dot info (e.g. www.foobar.info) domain names have been registered in the new domain’s first 90 days of operation, according to Afilias, the official dot info registry.

Registration started on a restricted basis at the end of July - at that time people could only register a dot info name if they held related a trademark. However, things eased up in September, and since the beginning of October anyone has been able to register a dot info name online.

I've just done it myself. www.scenarioplanning.info may well be the 500,001st dot info site. (The link probably won't work yet, as it takes a few hours for the domain details to propagate). It cost me 15 quid (UK pounds) from NetWeaver, a local host UK and registrar.

Over half the dot info names registered so far have come from Europe, according to Afilias. This is probably because dot info is the first general-purpose global domain name since dot com. By the time Europeans woke up to the Internet most of the decent dot com names had gone, so they were left with a strange mixture of country names - .co.uk, .ie, .dk, .de and so on.

These makes it difficult for people looking for your site, because people have to remember if you are located in Ireland, Denmark, the UK or wherever, then remember the correct letters to use (e.g. .de for Germany, .ch for Switzerland, but .fi rather than .su for Finland), and then also whether a .co is required too, or just the country letter (it varies).

All this makes the simple global dot info very attractive.

Meanwhile the new dot biz domains (e.g.greedy.biz), at one time scheduled to go live today, will not now come on stream till November 7th. The success of dot info bodes well for dot biz.

And beyond that the dot name domains (e.g. fintan.foobar.name) look like coming on stream just in time for Christmas. These domains come in two parts, so you can't just buy smith.name and then add all you family's first names yourself. Instead the registrars will be able to sell abigail.smith.name separately to abby.smith.name, giving them thousands of revenue-earning combinations just for that one surname.

On the plus side, it does at least mean that the first Stobie to register can't hog all the name space.


Thursday, October 18, 2001


Breaking our addiction to oil

Anatole Kaletsky has a good piece in today's Times arguing that it's perfectly possible for the West to break its dependency on Middle East oil.

The problem with this oil is that it carries an enormous hidden cost - the world economy is put at risk whenever there's an outbreak of 'Middle East madness'. While Kaletsky doesn't have a solution to the region's never-ending political problems, he does think it is possible to decouple the world economy from them.

For a start, if you stop thinking about reserves in the ground and just concentrate on current production, Opec has much less of a stranglehold than many people suppose. 'At present, Middle Eastern Opec members produce 26 per cent of the global supply of crude oil, equivalent to just under 13 per cent of the world’s total energy consumption. Saudi Arabia ...provides just 5 per cent of global energy supply. Iraq and Iran each account for around 1 per cent.'

Kaletsky argues that users can be weaned away further from dependency on this risky, politically-costly energy source with some simple measures. What's required is a combination of taxation, subsidy and regulation:
- taxation changes to shift demand away from oil generally
- subsidies to bring new oil fields outside the Opec area into production and to get non-oil energy sources onstream faster
- regulation to make filling stations offer alternative fuels [hydrogen, methanol or natural gas] for car fuel cells.

What Kaletsky is of course advocating is government intervention in the market. But this market is already heavily rigged, and what's more seems to require regular state intervention in the form of war.

So which would you rather have - a bit of economic meddling in the short-term or a continuing source of global uncertainty and enforced involvement in a turbulent region's endless conflicts?

More on fuel cells:
Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Letter
Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Investor



Saturday, October 13, 2001


Past, present and future of the camera

Polaroid, the company that until recently was almost synonymous with instant photography, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Although analysts will argue whether it was digital cameras or (more likely) the fast processing offered by High Street mini-labs, in either case the problem was Polaroid's inability to meet the challenge of rival new picture-making technologies.

By chance the BBC tonight broadcast a programme by one of Polaroid's greatest fans that casts a fascinating light on photographic technolgy past and future. Painter David Hockney spent the 1980s making massive collages often composed of multiple Polaroid images. He also liked playing around with the image itself with a sharp object while the print was still soft and developing.

In tonight's programme, made for the BBC Omnibus arts strand, Hockney takes forward an argument he first put forward at the end of 1999. Around 1420 art changed forever as artists in Italy and the Low Countries (modern-day Belgium and the Netherlands) began using simple optical systems to help them paint and draw.

Following a favourable article in the New Yorker in January 2000 (not online), Hockney's theories were challenged and even ridiculed by many art historians. Since then he's been hard at work looking for evidence in the paintings themselves, and talking to optical and architectural experts.

The latest version of the theory is presented in a heavily-illustrated book to be published at the end of this month, which no doubt explains the timing of the BBC show.

But Hockney makes a convincing case in the Omnibus film, reconstructing various apparatus and attempting to use it. With a simple set-up requiring just a convex mirror, the artist can clearly see the folds of clothing or the planes of a sitter's face projected onto the painting surface. This early system required bright lighting and only produced a small image on the canvas - producing a sudden telltale switch to smaller images of squinting sun-drenched people.

Later on suitable glass lenses became available, offering more flexibility in image size. But the resulting images were laterally inverted - which wasn't the case with mirrors. Hockney is able to show a sudden unlikely outburst of left-handedness among people painted at this time.

What has all this to do with the future of photography? Hockney argues that from around 1420 unto the 1830s, when chemical means of getting down the image came on the scene, the artist was essentially inside the camera. The mirror and lens systems required a human in the loop to record the image, and naturally the humans tended to manipulate the image to suit their own purposes.

Only when chemical photography arrived did it become possible - and eventually normal, to remove the human from the loop. Even then, there have always been some people - such as Hockney with his polaroids, who have wanted to intervene more in the process.

Now - with digital photography, Hockney believes this will become normal once again. 'Technology alters the way you make pictures.'




Crushing Bin Laden - a warning from Irish history

The Guardian has a depressing opinion piece by Jonathan Freedland called The war Bin Laden has already won

Freedland is worried that 'we may have played directly into Bin Laden's hands, following a script he's been dreaming up these last five years ... To capture and put Bin Laden on trial would be to create a focus for Islamist anger, and to further inflate his legend. Killing him would create a martyr whose death would have to be gruesomely avenged. Alive he would carry on wreaking murderous havoc. Every option is a victory for him and defeat for us.'

One reason this apparently defeatist stuff is emerging in the UK is because it has the clear example of 'the Irish troubles' close at hand. This shows how a struggle between a religiously-defined nationalism and a more powerful enemy evolves according to different rules to a normal war. If all it took was military victory, the Irish troubles would have ended long ago.

But in reality at various key points in its history militant Irish nationalism has gained enormous impetus from what on paper looked like military defeats.

The prime example is the Easter Rising of 1916 - a clear-cut military win for British forces but one that made a moderate accommodation impossible and popular support for outright independence grow.

This month is the 20th anniversary of another apparent defeat that turned into something a lot like victory - the end of the 1981 hunger strike by republican prisoners. Ten prisoners died in a campaign to force the UK government of Margaret Thatcher to recognise them as having political status. In this they failed - but the struggle itself revitalised the movement and brought it greatly increased political support.

Bobby Sands was elected a Member of the UK's Parliament for a Northern Irish constituency while on hunger strike. When he died a Sinn Fein colleague was elected MP in his place.

So the immediate outcome of British resistance to the demands of hunger strikers was to turn Sinn Fein into a more potent political force. In the longer term this had the effect of opening up a non-military way forward for the republican movement.

It's unlikely Bin Laden will use the political support he's gaining to turn himself into the Gerry Adams of militant Islam. The sadder Irish example of 1916-23 is likely to be more apt - a crushing military defeat leading to polarisation, terrorist acts on all sides and civil war in the countries where his supporters are found.




Are phones the future of the mobile Internet?

The answer appears to be 'yes' in Europe and Japan, and 'no' in the US.

This is one area where Japan - somewhat unusually nowadays, is streets ahead of the rest of the world. Europe is currently stalled with the flop of WAP, but will eventually go the phone route too for Internet access on the move.

But in the US people prefer computers to mobile phones. So widespread mobile use of the Internet will probably take longer to arrive, and then use a wireless networking approach such as WiFi.

The current issue of the Economist has several good articles on the future of the mobile Internet.

Peering round the corner looks at the very large differences in technical approach and user adoption rates on the three continents (most of Asia will probably go the Japanese route).

i-Mode phones have been a runaway success in Japan, thanks to low cost, enthusiastic uptake by teenagers and a business model that enables web-content providers to make money. There are 27 million Japanese using i-Mode phones for Internet access.

The Economist says the latest generation of Japanese phones are much faster, have integrated cameras, and are backward compatible with the earlier i-Mode offering. The only drawbacks are they get hot and drain batteries faster.

Things turned out differently in Europe because a botched WAP launch has made both consumers and content providers wary. Though the technical problems have mostly been sorted, still the customers don't come, preferring instead to play with text messaging. Phone operators are waiting for G3 phones to provide their delayed bonanza.

The American love affair with computers is driven by both economic and cultural factors. PCs and fixed phone lines are relatively cheap compared to the rest of the world, mobile phone use more expensive, says the Economist.

Consequently mobile Internet use in America is more of a corporate thing than in Europe or East Asia, where it is pitched primarily to consumers. Americans tend to drive to work rather than use train or tube, so accessing the Internet while commuting isn't such an attractive idea.

More in WiFi at WECA.



Thursday, October 11, 2001


Bankers visit their future

Top execs from financial service companies are visiting a 30,000-square-foot future demonstration facility in Stamford, Connecticut to get ideas about the future of retail banking, according to an enthusiastic article in this months Fast Company.

The Merlin Center is set up like a city street, with various-size banks and banking kiosks scattered about. John Ryan Co, the consulting firm behind it, says it has spent $15 million on the future simulation so far.

'Our goal is to show them what's coming - what the technology is making not just possible, but inevitable, says Bob Steele, MD of the Merlin Center.

For a more sceptical take on exactly the same center, try Bank Technology News. It puts this kind of showcase facility firmly in the context of the efforts of technology vendors to pitch themselves as solutions providers rather than humble makers of stuff.

'No one claims to provide hardware or software anymore, only "solutions",' moans Bank Tech News with some justification.





Bad timing for UK data protection law

IT managers in the UK are getting conflicting signals from the government about what they should be doing to help combat terrorism. At the root of the confusion is a conflict between the present security clampdown and privacy laws enacted in a more peaceful, liberal era.

Many provisions of a wide-ranging Data Protection Act passed in 1998 are only now coming into force. Companies have until the 24th of October to comply with measures that include beefed up privacy protection for employees and consumers.

The problem is that actions managers may now wish to take for security reasons - such as retaining staff emails and recording customer behaviour on web sites, may be open to legal challenge.

More legislation may be required to sort out the mess. David Blunkett, the UK government minister in charge of policing, has already called for new laws to compel Internet Service Providers, transport carriers and financial institutions to retain transaction records for longer so they can make them available to the authorities if required. He's also suggested the UK should introduce a national identity (ID) card scheme.

Meanwhile IT managers will have to comply with the law as it stands. One thing they can do though it look again at their online privacy policies and employee contracts of employment. These should be modified to spell out when monitoring may take place, which may give managers some protection.

Although it's a US example, the simple privacy statement of Pyra, the company which hosts this site and provides the Blogger software, seems to get the balance about right.

'It is Pyra's policy to respect the privacy of Members. Therefore, Pyra will not disclose to any third party Member's name or contact information. Pyra will also not monitor, edit, or disclose the contents of a Member's information unless required to do so by law or in the good faith belief that such action is necessary to: (1) conform to the edicts of the law or comply with legal process served on Pyra; (2) protect and defend the rights or property of Pyra; or (3) act under exigent circumstances to protect the personal safety of Pyra service's users or the public; (4) fix or debug problems with the BlogSpot servers/software/service.'


Wednesday, October 10, 2001


Afghanistan 101

Very good background briefing put out by the Irish public service TV station Radio Telefís Éireann. It was filmed before the World Trade Center attack, but it has much still-relevant material on the origins of the present conflict.

'The Taliban are the children of the former Mujahedeen, whose families were in refugee camps in Pakistan. And they were taken, their minds were taken by these fanatical Muslims, usually financed by Saudi Arabia. They were brought up in this new brand of Wahhabi, Saudi-type fanatical Islam. They were then given help by the Pakistanis to go back into Afghanistan and to bring all the Mujahedeen who by now were fighting amongst themselves under control for Pakistan, so that Pakistan would eventually be able to bring Central Asian oil through Afghanistan to the sea.'
Hazhir Teimourian, Middle East analyst

'Interestingly, the wars which the West has fought in the last ten years, the three wars that the West has fought, have all been in defence of Muslim peoples: in the defence of Kuwait, in the defence of the Bosnians, a multi-ethnic society, but mainly Muslims and in the case of Kosovo, who are all Muslims. So curiously, the idea that the West is against Islam is nonsense, and, in the case of Afghanistan, the CIA spent all this money on the Mujahedeen.'
Fred Halliday, Professor of International Relations, London School of Economics





What happens after the war is over?

A team of students and staff at New York University have used scenario planning to think about what the world might be like after the current action.

From all the possibilities considered, five emerged as having the most critical implications.

The key possible futures are:

1. An Empire Stretched Too Thin
- the US is caught in a never-ending quagmire.

2. International McCarthyism
- the US wins, but becomes an oppressive control-oriented state.

3. Black Market World
- war leads to fragmentation, conflict between rich and poor, 'gated nations', and increased black-market activity.

4. Gloom and Boom
Pakistan becomes rabidly Islamic, leading to nuclear attacks and Chernobyls everywhere.

5. Blooming World
In the only optimistic outcome of the five scenarios, the war's imperatives change global culture for the better.



Tuesday, October 09, 2001


Avoiding Bin Laden's trap

How can the US win the hearts and minds of moderate Muslims around the world? This opinion piece published in the Pakistan daily Dawn makes interesting reading. The author, Bernard Haykel, is a professor at New York University.

First it explains why Bin Laden has no authority to call a Jihad. 'According to Islamic law there are at least six reasons why Bin Laden's barbaric violence cannot fall under the rubric of jihad ...'

But then it goes on to say that it would be mistake for the West to kill him. 'He has thought about this scenario and desires it ... If he is killed he dies a martyr and symbol of resistance to western domination; he also gets to kill a number of US soldiers and tarnishes the image of America in the minds of ordinary Muslims.'

The best course, the author argues, is to encourage Muslims themselves to take a leading role in the fight against Bin Laden.



Monday, October 08, 2001


Ellison backs ID cards

Larry Ellison, boss of database giant Oracle, has offered to help the US government set up a national identity (ID) card system, even providing the software for free. Ellison acknowledges the civil liberties concerns many feel at such a move, but argues that since people already have numerous special-purpose cards and identity documents they would accept a more integrated system if it made it easier to catch terrorists.

Writing in today's Wall Street Journal under the headline 'Digital IDs Can Help Prevent Terrorism', Ellison says:' The question is not whether the government should issue ID cards and maintain databases; they already do. The question is whether the ones we have can be made more effective, especially when it comes to finding criminals.'

'The single thing we could do to make life tougher for terrorists would be to ensure that all the information in myriad government databases was integrated into a single national file.'

Ellison doesn't think the scheme need be made compulsory to work. 'In fact, a voluntary system of standardized IDs issued by government agencies and private companies could prove more effective than a mandatory system ... We don't need to trade our liberties for our lives.'

The whole subject of ID cards is highly controversial in many English-speaking countries. Thought most countries around the world have long required all citizens to carry government-approved identity documents, neither the US nor the UK do. A debate about whether to introduce ID cards is going on in the UK at the moment too.

The UK did have ID cards during World War II, but once the emergency was over they were scrapped on the grounds that they damaged relations between police and public (see The Guardian Un-British or vital?).

The reasons go back to deep distrust of central government - once ID cards are introduced the fear is they could be used to erode hard-won freedoms. Don't forget that South Africa's version of the ID card, the Pass book, was used to impose racial segregation. It was a demonstration against the Pass system that led to the infamous Sharpeville massacre in 1960 and South Africa's subsequent three decades of civil war.

So the case in favour of ID cards is not clear-cut. People have to trust their governments.

Indeed, Ellison acknowledges these issues in his Wall Street Journal piece. 'Trusting government to maintain a database with our names, addresses, places of work, amounts and sources of income, assets, purchases, travel destinations, and more, seems a huge leap of faith. But we should remember that these databases already exist ... and that that the government already tracks things'.



Friday, October 05, 2001


Flag waving on the web
These rather appealing wind-rippled flags seem to be popping up all over the place at the moment. They come from 3DFlags.com and are free in return for a link.

3DFlags caters to the needs of most nations, with the appropriate design available in several sizes and backgrounds. However, I'm not sure they've managed to get the right image for Afghanistan.
While 3DFlags.com offers a more complex story is told at Afghan Network, a specialist news, entertainment and shopping site operating out of Canada.

In a symptom of the tough times the unfortunate country has been through, Afghanistan's flag seems to change abnormally often. Afghan Network shows ten designs in the last 100 years.

The current flag is plausibly puritanical - plain white with black Islamic inscriptions.

However, a clip shown on the BBC's UK Newsnight programme on Tuesday showed several Taliban supporters enthusiastically waving a black-and-white striped model. So perhaps the flag has changed yet again.


Thursday, October 04, 2001


How Bin Laden escaped from US control

Long extract on Indymedia from what looks like an excellent and timely book. 'Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia', by Ahmed Rashid, published by Yale University Press and available in paperback. The author is a Pakistani journalist who writes for the Far Eastern Economic Review and The Daily Telegraph in London. The book gets lots of positive comments from reviewers on the Amazon site.

It's full of revelations, for example:

'He brought in his company engineers and heavy construction equipment to help build roads and depots for the Mujaheddin. In 1986, he helped build the Khost tunnel complex, which the CIA was funding as a major arms storage depot, training facility and medical center for the Mujaheddin, deep under the mountains close to the Pakistan border. He then set up his own training camp there for "Arab Afghans" [the volunteers flocking in from around the Islamic world to fight the Soviets].

'...Bin Laden later claimed to have taken part in ambushes against Soviet troops, but he mainly used his wealth and Saudi donations to build Mujaheddin projects and spread Wahabbism among the Afghans. After the death of Azam in 1989, he took over Azam's organization and set up Al Qaeda or Military Base, as a service center for Arab-Afghans and their families and to forge a broad-based alliance among them. With the help of Bin Laden, several thousand Arab militants had established bases in the provinces of Kunar, Nuristan and Badakhshan, but their extreme Wahabbi practices made them intensely disliked by the majority of Afghans.

'...By 1990, Bin Laden was disillusioned by the internal bickering of the Mujaheddin and he returned to Saudi Arabia to work in the family business. He founded a welfare organization for Arab-Afghan veterans. Some 4,000 of them had settled in Mecca and Medina alone, and Bin Laden gave money to the families of those killed.

'... After Iraq's invasion of Kuwait he lobbied the Royal Family to organize a popular defense of the kingdom and raise a force from the Afghan war veterans to fight Iraq. Instead, King Fahd invited in the Americans. This came as an enormous shock to Bin Laden.

'... In 1992, Bin Laden left for Sudan to take part in the Islamic revolution under way there under the charismatic Sudanese leader Hassan Turabi. Bin Laden's continued criticism of the Saudi Royal Family eventually annoyed them so much that they took the unprecedented step of revoking his citizenship in 1994.

'It was in Sudan, with his wealth and contacts, that Bin Laden gathered around him more veterans of the Afghan war, who were all disgusted by the American victory over Iraq and the attitude of the Arab ruling elites who allowed the US military to remain in the Gulf. As US and Saudi pressure mounted against Sudan for harboring Bin Laden, the Sudanese authorities asked him to leave.

'In May 1996, Bin Laden travelled back to Afghanistan, arriving in Jalalabad in a chartered jet with an entourage of dozens of Arab militants, bodyguards and family members, including three wives and 13 children. Here he lived under the protection of the Jalalabad Shura [an advisory body or assembly], until the conquest of Kabul and Jalalabad by the Taliban in September 1996. In August 1996, he had issued his first declaration of jihad against the Americans, whom he said were occupying Saudi Arabia.

'In early 1997, the CIA constituted a squad that arrived in Peshawar to try to carry out a snatch operation to get Bin Laden out of Afghanistan. The Americans enlisted Afghans and Pakistanis to help them but aborted the operation. The US activity in Peshawar helped persuade Bin Laden to move to the safer confines of Kandahar.

'On 23 February 1998, at a meeting in the original Khost camp, all the groups associated with Al Qaeda issued a manifesto under the aegis of "The International Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders".'

More in the full extract.


Wednesday, October 03, 2001


Changing western priorities likely to affect Israel

'The idea of a Palestinian state has always been a part of a vision, so long as the right of Israel to exist is respected', President Bush told reporters after meeting congressional leaders at the White House on Tuesday.

Meanwhile over in the UK on the same day Tony Blair in his speech at the ruling Labour Party's annual conference said: 'And the Palestinians must have justice, the chance to prosper and in their own land as equal partners with Israel'.

What's going on here? The short answer is that western, and above all American, priorities have changed.

When the Arab-Israeli dispute was just a matter of distant troubles in a foreign land it could largely be left to interested lobby groups to decide policy. What matters most to western politicians is winning elections, and before September the 11th this implied respecting powerful pro-Israeli sentiment.

But now what happens in the Middle East is central to domestic security. Politicians know they can only hope to win elections if they first meet the public's overwhelming security concerns.

Foreign policy is now being driven directly by the needs of domestic security. And America needs the support of Arab and Islamic states more than it needs the support of Ariel Sharon's government in Israel.

Bush: U.S. endorses a Palestinian state Ha'aretz (Israeli newspaper with a broadly liberal outlook)

Before Attacks, U.S. Was Ready to Say It Backed Palestinian State New York Times

(Note: both links will expire in about a week as both newspapers only offer free access to their most recent issues)



FTC targets pop-up king

The US Federal Trade Commission has taken one John Zuccarini to court for allegedly diverting users to his web sites and then 'mousetrapping' them with pop-up windows.

An FTC investigator entered one of the defendant's copycat domain names, annakurnikova.com, and 29 browser windows opened automatically. Once users are at one of the defendant's sites, says the FTC, it is very difficult for them to leave. Clicks on the close or back buttons just cause new windows to open.

The FTC estimates that Zuccarini earns between $800,000 and $1 million annually from the ad revenue from such schemes.

My take: Good luck to the FTC.
Meanwhile you might find it worth checking out PopUp Killer 1.4, a free software utility. I've had it installed for a few days and it seems to stop a lot of these things.



Experts back startling heroin claims

The Guardian reports on Tony Blair's claim during a speech to the Labour Party's annual congress yesterday that 90% of the heroin sold on British streets comes from Afghanistan. 'The arms the Taliban are buying today are paid for with the lives of young British people buying their drugs on British streets', said the UK prime minister. 'That is another part of their regime that we should seek to destroy.'

Full text of Blair's speech

Why Afghan opium prices are falling According to an earlier Guardian story, existing opium stockpiles had fallen in value because of the prospect of new cultivation. Farmers are ready to exploit the fact that no new post-Taliban administration was likely to be in place in Kabul before next spring.

'All the ingredients for illicit cultivation are there: war, continuing poverty and a breakdown in law and order. We could see a huge resumption in cultivation', says the head of the UN's drugs control programme (UNDCP) in Islamabad. The traditional poppy planting season is from mid-October to late November or early December, so the next few weeks are crucial.


Tuesday, October 02, 2001


How a shock galvanised America into action once before

Sputnik, the first-ever spacecraft, was launched by the USSR on the 4th of October 1957, 44 years ago this Thursday.

'It's difficult to recapture the sense of paranoia and self-doubt that Sputnik created in the US', the New York Times wrote for a commemorative feature on Sputnik written four years ago. But it's a lot easier to do so now.

Though the events of 11th of September 2001 present a very different challenge, the response by the earlier generation of Americans suggests the scale of the changes we may see.

The shock of Sputnik led the US to pour money and people into space research, to reform its education system and to create NASA. These efforts led to giant leaps forward in military and rocket science, and also pushed forward computing, electronics and new business techniques such as project management.

Within four months of Sputnik the US had its own (though much smaller) satellite up in orbit. In 12 years it was carrying out the first manned moon landing.

Among the other eventual outcomes was the Internet - it's a direct descendent of ARPAnet, a computer network set up by the Advanced Research Projects Agency, one of the institutions created in the immediate aftermath of Sputnik.

PBS historians reminisce

Mike Wright: 'The reaction throughout the US was universal: we're all gonna die'






Women's (pear) shape explained
Big bottoms and fat thighs are there to counterbalance the bump at the front during pregnancy, according to research by Boguslaw Pawlowski of the University of Wroclaw quoted by Scientific American. Pointing out that women in traditional societies often have to work hard gathering food right up until the moment of birth, Pawloski suggests that evolution promoted fat buttocks and thighs to balance the baby's load. 'Without a counterbalance, inefficient walking and foraging could have put [early human females] at much greater risk of starvation and predation'.

Next task for science: a theory of the male beer belly.






Pakistan, the CIA and the Taliban
Good article in Jane's International Security News about the key role Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence agency (ISI) has played and continues to play in supporting the Taliban - at least initially at the CIA's behest.

'The concern now for General Musharraf is whether the ISI will remain loyal to him and provide the US with credible information or continue to pursue its aims of ensuing the Taliban’s continuance in Kabul', Janes quotes one intelligence officer as saying.

The report also notes the way the CIA-ISI operation 'succeeded not only in turning Soviet troops into addicts, but also in boosting heroin sales in Europe and the US'.



Saturday, September 29, 2001


Warplane of the hour?

V-22 tilt-rotor plane

This weird-looking aircraft is the V-22 Osprey. It might have been designed for conditions in Afghanistan. It's a cross between a helicopter and a transport plane. Two oversized propellers on the wings can be tilted to give either vertical or forward thrust, allowing it to take off and land almost anywhere.

It should be less vulnerable to ground fire than a normal helicopter because it can go twice as fast. It can also carry about three times the payload - whether troops, equipment or food. And it also has far greater range - five times more according to an article in this months Marine Corps Gazette.

This would give the US many more options on where to position base areas - very useful politically as well as militarily in the present climate.

But there's a problem with the Osprey. Does it work yet? This is always a difficult call to make when introducing any radical new technology, but it's even harder in this case as lives are at stake.

There are at least eight Osprey's available for service, but two others crashed last year in separate incidents - killing 23 Marines. So US politicians and military commanders would be taking a clear risk deploying the machines.

On the other hand, not deploying the Osprey may also entail risk to any US forces going into Afghanistan, because the Mujahideen have shown that they are able to deal with conventional helicopters.



Thursday, September 27, 2001


Fuel-free aircraft One way of making aircraft safer is to leave the fuel on the ground. Power is then beamed up using a microwave or light laser. This is at best a long-term possibility for passenger aircraft, but decades of research have already been done, and models are now flying.

Several microwave-powered remotely-piloted airplanes have been developed at the University of Toronto. The latest has a 12 metre wingspan. In these aircraft the microwave power is used to drive a conventional propeller.

A more radical but difficult approach is to use the beam itself for propulsion. Engineers from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in up-state New York focus the beam onto air inside the engine, causing it to explode and produce thrust. This is has the potential to eventually lift vehicles all the way into orbit. Videos of their flying-saucer-like craft under test.


Meanwhile, satirical web site The Onion is offering some relief from the gloom, with safety tips like flights should taxi to their destinations. Warning: this site might offend.



Wednesday, September 26, 2001


Unintended consequences in Afghanistan

One of the difficulties in ending terrorism is that the major powers will first have to stop supporting terrorists (or 'freedom fighters') against each other.

A revealing interview in the French magazine Le Nouvel Observateur back in January 1998 makes it clear how deep a change in mindset will be required.

In it, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, says:

- that the CIA started encouraging the Mujahideen in Afganistan before the Russians invaded
- that this secret operation was an excellent idea, luring the Russians into the Afghan trap
- that having the Taliban in Afghanistan was a price worth paying for having the Soviet empire collapse

Because the interview, by Vincent Jauvert, is in French I translate some of it below.

Nouvel Observateur:
The former director of the CIA Robert Gates says in his memoirs that America started to help the Afghan Mujahideen six months before the Soviet intervention. At the time, you were president Carter's national security adviser and therefore played a key role in this affair. Can you confirm it?


Brzezinski:
Yes. According to the official version of history, the CIA assistance to the Mujahideen began during 1980, i.e. after the Soviet army had invaded Afghanistan on December 24, 1979. But the reality, kept secret until now, is very different: it was July 3, 1979 when President Carter signed the first directive on the clandestine assistance to opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And on that day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained that in my opinion this aid would bring about a military intervention by the Soviets.


Nouvel Observateur:
Yet in spite of this risk, you were in favour of this covert action. Perhaps you even wished for Soviet entry into the war and were looking to provoke it?


Brzezinski:
It is not completely that. We did not push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would.


Nouvel Observateur: Do you not regret anything today?

Brzezinski: Regret what? This secret operation was an excellent idea. It had the effect of luring the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it? The day the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to president Carter, in substance: "We now have the opportunity to give the USSR its war of Vietnam". In fact, Moscow had to conduct an unbearable war for almost ten years, a conflict which led to the demoralization and finally the break up of the Soviet empire.

Nouvel Observateur:
Do you not regret having supported Islamic fundamentalism, having given weapons and advice to future terrorists?


Brzezinski: What is most important from the point of view of the history of the world? The Taliban or the fall of the Soviet empire? A few excited Muslims [quelques excités islamistes] or the liberation of Central Europe and end of the cold war?

Nouvel Observateur: But it is often said that Islamic fundamentalism represents a world threat today.

Brzezinski: What foolishness!




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